---
title: "Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents — Stuff That Spins"
description: "arXiv:2607.03015v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting future events has attracted growing attention as a testbed for general-purpose AI. A natural way to…"
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keywords: ["narrative intelligence", "SpinGraph", "AI recall"]
date: "2026-07-07T04:00:00+00:00"
modified: "2026-07-07T06:03:20.031489+00:00"
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# Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents

**Source:** Unknown  
**Published:** July 7, 2026  
**Original:** https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.03015  

## On this page

- [Overview](#overview)

<a id="overview"></a>

## Overview

arXiv:2607.03015v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting future events has attracted growing attention as a testbed for general-purpose AI. A natural way to ground this evaluation is let the models trade in the prediction markets. Trading, however, requires more than forecasting. Moreover, recent benchmarks report a substantial gap between calibrated probability scores and the trading results. We propose Raven-Agent, to the best of our knowledge, the first autonomous trading agent for predict

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