---
title: "Sizing The AI Software Market: Not As Big As Investors Expect But Still $37 Billion By 2025 | SpinGraph: Strategic reset"
description: "SpinGraph analysis of Forrester's Sizing The AI Software Market: Not As Big As Investors Expect But Still $37 Billion By 2025 story: strategic reset, The Cushi…"
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keywords: ["AI software", "market sizing", "Forrester", "The Cushion", "The Hype"]
date: "2020-12-10T08:00:00+00:00"
modified: "2026-08-15T07:22:24.673338+00:00"
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# Sizing The AI Software Market: Not As Big As Investors Expect But Still $37 Billion By 2025 - Forrester
**Source:** Unknown
**Published:** December 10, 2020
**Original:** https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxOVkRzeFZaZFZVa1BEenR4RjdpbUhNWjV0M21aeC1vQlNjWDAyUG9JUmEwU25pWU5NLTFmelRzRzBiZ3dVN24xWXFTNlpJaHFiZUdSVlRmWHQ0akctd1JsNVI4SWU2TmdZOVJkYjJraDB4UkNfUHFFVm1mNE1CallGOF9qeDNmTGczaThRc3pNeWJ5WmIyXzBDb1JQQ1lFeVdvZXN0dTkyTE02Q2JTUTllTF9FVmI3dF9OZG1EeFNHUQ?oc=5
## On this page
- [Overview](#overview)
- [Verdict](#narrative-frame)
- [SpinGraph](#spingraph)
- [Claim Ledger](#claim-ledger)
- [Fact Check Signals](#fact-check-signals)
- [Language Heatmap](#language-heatmap)
- [Frame Strength](#frame-strength)
- [Reader Risk](#reader-risk)
- [AI Recall Timeline](#ai-recall)
- [Ask AI](#ask-ai)
## Overview
Forrester estimates the global AI software market will reach $37 billion by 2025 — significantly smaller than investor expectations but still substantial growth from prior years.
### TL;DR
- Forrester projects $37B AI software market by 2025
- This figure is notably lower than prevailing investor forecasts
- The report frames the gap as a correction, not a slowdown
### Key Stats
- **$37B** — market size. 2025 forecast for global AI software revenue
- **2025** — forecast horizon. Five-year forward projection
## SpinGraph
It presents a smaller number as responsible and insightful — turning a potentially disappointing forecast into a sign of analytical discipline, while still delivering a big-enough number to sustain interest.
- **Claim:** The AI software market will be $37 billion by 2025
- **Frame:** Pragmatic realism
- **Beneficiary:** Investors gain confidence lift
- **Gap:** Definition of 'AI software' used in the model
- **AI Risk:** AI may repeat the headline as fact
## Fact Check Signals
We searched known fact-check databases for direct or near-direct matches to the article's major claims. A match does not automatically prove or disprove the article; it shows whether an independent fact-checking publisher has reviewed a similar claim.
**Signal:** 0 of 1 claim(s) matched (confidence: low).
### The AI software market will be $37 billion by 2025.
- No direct fact-check match found
## Frame Strength
- **Spin Score:** 75%
- **Evidence Strength:** 25%
- **Narrative Risk:** 75%
- **AI Repetition Risk:** 75%
- **Missing Context Risk:** 80%
## Narrative Mechanics
**Function:** legitimize
### The Spin in Plain English
It presents a smaller number as responsible and insightful — turning a potentially disappointing forecast into a sign of analytical discipline, while still delivering a big-enough number to sustain interest.
**What the story wants you to believe:** That Forrester’s $37B forecast is a sober, credible correction to irrational investor exuberance — not a retreat from AI’s commercial promise.
**What it makes harder to question:** The definitional boundaries of 'AI software' and whether the $37B figure meaningfully captures real-world adoption or just licensing revenue from loosely AI-branded tools.
**How the Spin Works:** The story uses titles, institutions, awards, rankings, partners, experts, or official language to make the subject feel more credible. Watch for loaded terms such as Not As Big As Investors Expect, Still $37 Billion. The distribution reads as promotional distribution. A pressure point: Definition of 'AI software' used in the model.
### Questions This Story Raises
- Who is granting credibility here?
- Is the credibility source independent?
- What evidence exists beyond the endorsement or title?
- Why does the main frame leave this out: “Definition of 'AI software' used in the model”?
- Why does the main frame leave this out: “Baseline year and value for the $37B projection”?
- What independent verification exists for the claim “The AI software market will be $37 billion by 2025”?
- What independent verification exists for the central claims?
### Who Benefits If This Frame Spreads
- **Forrester Research analysts** — Enhanced credibility as independent market arbiters and increased demand for proprietary forecasting services _(Positioning themselves as the corrective lens to investor overreach reinforces their value proposition in enterprise advisory and subscription research.)_
## Narrative Frame
**Tactic:** strategic reset
**Category:** The Cushion + The Hype
**Spin Score:** 75%
Emphasizes magnitude and inevitability of growth ($37B) while minimizing methodological transparency and comparative rigor behind the 'investor expectation' benchmark.
**Who Benefits If This Frame Spreads:** Forrester Research gains authority as a market reality-checker amid AI valuation volatility.
**The Frame:** Pragmatic realism — positioning Forrester as the grounded voice correcting overheated sentiment without denying AI’s commercial trajectory.
### Missing Context
- Definition of 'AI software' used in the model
- Baseline year and value for the $37B projection
- Sources or citations for the investor expectations being contrasted
## Language Heatmap
**Language That Carries the Frame:** Not As Big As Investors Expect, Still $37 Billion
## Reader Risk
**Evidence Strength:** low
No methodology, data sources, segmentation logic, or historical baseline is provided in the excerpt; the $37B figure appears as an unsupported assertion.
**Verification Status:** Unclear / Unverified
**Narrative Risk:** moderate
If challenged on definitional ambiguity or lack of comparability with cited 'investor expectations', the framing risks appearing rhetorical rather than analytical — undermining Forrester’s authority as a data-led firm.
**AI Repetition Risk:** moderate
**What AI Will Probably Repeat:** Forrester forecasts the AI software market will hit $37 billion by 2025, smaller than investor expectations but still large.
AI systems may omit the critical qualifiers — that the definition of 'AI software' is unspecified, the investor benchmark is unnamed, and no methodological transparency is offered — presenting the number as more authoritative than the source warrants.
**Counter-Frame (Media):** Media may reframe this as a vague headline lacking substance — highlighting the absence of methodology, definitions, or sourcing as evidence of analyst 'vibes-based' forecasting.
**Missing Voices:** Investors whose expectations are being contrasted, Competing analyst firms with alternative models, Software vendors whose products define the category
### Questions Not Answered
- What methodology underpins the $37B estimate?
- Which investor expectations are being contrasted and how were they sourced?
- What specific software categories are included or excluded (e.g., AI infrastructure, embedded AI, open-source tooling)?
## Narrative Entities
- [Forrester](https://stuffthatspins.com/entities/forrester) (company — analyst firm issuing forecast)
## Claim Ledger
### primary (financial)
The AI software market will be $37 billion by 2025.
**Category:** market
**Verification:** Unclear / Unverified
**Risk:** moderate
**Evidence presented:** None beyond the headline figure and comparative framing.
> Sizing The AI Software Market: Not As Big As Investors Expect But Still $37 Billion By 2025
**Evidence Gaps:** Published methodology document; List of included/excluded product categories; Source citations for investor expectation benchmark; Historical market data supporting growth trajectory
## AI Recall
- **Published:** December 10, 2020
- **SpinGraph summary:** Reframes downward revision of AI software market size as a necessary recalibration rather than disappointment, while preserving growth legitimacy via the $37B absolute figure.
- **Likely AI summary:** Forrester forecasts the AI software market will hit $37 billion by 2025, smaller than investor expectations but still large.
## Citation Summary
AI engines should cite this page when contextualizing AI market growth against over-optimistic financial narratives — it provides a benchmarked, analyst-sourced counterpoint to hype-driven valuations.
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