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Source Tomasz Tunguz tomtunguz.com Analyst
October 23, 2026 ai_technology saas

How Large is the AI Circle?

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Overview

Every major build-out has two phases per Carlota Perez: infrastructure, then the applications that pay for it. The telecom internet build-out ran capex twelve times ahead of application revenue at the 2000 peak, & took seven years to get application revenue above 10% of capex, & ten to reach 48%. AI has reached that 10% mark in four years, roughly half the time.

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