Latent Coherence: Do Frontier Language Models' Probability Judgments Obey the Law of Total Probability?

Overview

arXiv:2610.31833v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LawZero's Scientist AI trains a Predictor toward the Bayesian posterior, with an objective that penalizes inconsistent probabilities among latent explanations. We ask whether current frontier language models, with no such training, are already consistent in this sense zero-shot: do their probability judgments satisfy the law of total probability, $P(X)=\sum_z P(z)P(X|z)$, when the latent $z$ must be inferred from records in the context? In separate

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