SPIN Unprocessed July 7, 2026 ai_technology research
Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents
View original on arxiv.orgOverview
arXiv:2607.03015v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting future events has attracted growing attention as a testbed for general-purpose AI. A natural way to ground this evaluation is let the models trade in the prediction markets. Trading, however, requires more than forecasting. Moreover, recent benchmarks report a substantial gap between calibrated probability scores and the trading results. We propose Raven-Agent, to the best of our knowledge, the first autonomous trading agent for predict
SpinGraph analysis pending — check back after processing.
Ask AI about this story
Opens with the SpinGraph .md URL and structured context — one click, prompt included.
More from arXiv Artificial Intelligence
View all →- When Aggregate Alignment Misleads: Auditing Policy Repair Without Per-State Expert Actions
- Reflective Dialogue or Prompt Refinement? Effects of Tutor Scaffolding on Students' Independent LLM Use for Programming
- Embodied Operators and Benchmarking: Toward Reusable and Deployable Embodied Intelligence Systems
- Organizational Memory for Agentic Business Process Execution
- APeB: Benchmarking Personalization Ability of Large Language Model Agents
- Silicon Sampling via Cross-Survey Transfer
Markdown (.md) · JSON-LD schema (.json) · Machine-readable for AI & GEO