Is Ai technological progession going to stall and plataeu or exponentially increase?

Overview

As ai technological progression rate increases, i cannot help but ask: Are we going to see ai technology plataeuing, unable to reach ASI(artificial superintelligence), and becoming a highly useful tool like a calculator (repeating the first industrial revolution, where machines failed to replace human labour, or calculators failing to replace mathematicians), or become a total human cognition replacement? There are various evidences that side with either outcome being true, and currently this to

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